Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Sir Keir Starmer has batted away claims that an expected rebellion on his welfare reforms could spell the end of his premiership, suggesting that Labour MPs’ concerns were “noises off” and predicting he will win the vote.
“I’m comfortable with reading the room and delivering the change the country needs,” the prime minister said on Wednesday. “We’ve got a strong Labour government with a huge majority to deliver on our manifesto commitments.”
He added: “Is it tough going? Are there plenty of noises off? Yes, of course, there always are, there always will be, but the important thing is to focus on the change we want to bring about.”
Starmer’s comments suggested strong confidence that his contentious package will pass a critical vote in the House of Commons next week, even as he faces the biggest rebellion of Labour MPs since taking office at the July 2024 general election in a landslide victory.
More than 120 Labour MPs have signed an amendment aimed at blocking the bill over concerns it will push hundreds of thousands of people into poverty.
Earlier on Wednesday, Starmer confirmed that the vote would go ahead in spite of speculation that it might be pulled to try to work out concessions to the package.
The government’s pledge to push forward raises the spectre of the first defeat for Starmer’s government, despite Labour’s huge majority of 156.
If 80 Labour MPs vote against the government, along with the Tories and Liberal Democrats, it will be enough to kill the legislation, causing severe political embarrassment for Starmer and blowing a £5bn hole in the government’s annual budget.
Some MPs say a defeat could lead to a significant weakening of Starmer’s authority within the party or to senior ministers losing their positions.
“If they go through with this and lose the vote — as I strongly suspect they would if they don’t change course — it is going to require a major reset of the cabinet to restore the PM’s authority and that might mean some senior heads could have to roll,” one Labour MP said.
The rebellion has brewed during a time when Starmer has primarily been overseas or dealing with international matters such as the Israeli and US strikes on Iran, sparking some frustration among backbench MPs.
Changes proposed in the welfare bill would result in about 800,000 fewer people being entitled to disability benefits, many of whom need help washing themselves or using the toilet.
One Labour whip, Vicky Foxcroft, resigned last week in protest against the legislation.
Rebel Labour MPs say two parliamentary private secretaries and three junior ministers have privately said that they will vote against the government.
MPs have reported heavy-handed tactics from the leadership, including threats of future deselection, removal from select committees or even removing funding pledges from rebels’ constituencies.
There is also believed to be a major split within the cabinet between those determined to face down the rebels and others keen to seek a compromise.
Andy McDonald, MP for Middlesbrough and Thornaby East, said it was foolish of some loyalists to present the vote as a confidence issue on Starmer’s leadership when it was not.
“I don’t know why they would try to elevate it to that; no one is saying they don’t have confidence in the government. This is the wrong policy and they need to re-examine it.”
One Labour MP said: “They’re playing with the PLP [Parliamentary Labour party], and the PLP at the moment isn’t going to blink,” adding that more names would be added to the list over the course of the day.
The person added that chancellor Rachel Reeves “is getting most of the stick” from MPs, noting that ministers in the Department for Work and Pensions had indicated that the scale of the cuts had been forced on them by the Treasury.
They also noted that Labour whips had told MPs they had tried to warn Starmer about the threat of rebellion but it had fallen on deaf ears. “I don’t think the information is getting to him,” they said.
Credit: Source link