This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:
Investors have been celebrating wins against inflation for months.
After all, belief the Federal Reserve was on the path to deflating the 40-year highs in inflation we got in 2021 has been part of this year’s market rally.
Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, showed that on a “core” basis — which strips out food and energy and is the Fed’s target metric — prices over the last six months have risen at an annualized pace of 1.9%.
And with the Fed targeting 2% inflation, this measure shows the central bank well on its way to meeting its mandate.
But the news for consumers underneath the hood of this report is even more encouraging on account of what’s happening at the gas pump.
As our Chart of the Week shows, headline PCE inflation, which includes all categories, showed prices actually fell from the prior month by 0.1%. This marked the first outright decline in prices since April 2020.
Earlier this year, Fed Chair Jay Powell acknowledged that “core” inflation isn’t really what most consumers think about — we all still need to eat and move around. And now we can, for less.
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