XRP surged 35% in a month on CLARITY Act hopes, but the House leaves Washington just two days after the Senate cloture vote.
Polymarket prices the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at about 18%, down from a peak of 90% in February.
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s office told members that leadership removed the weeks of September 21 and September 28, cutting eight legislative days, so even a Senate win would not produce a law before the midterms.
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The XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) price trades at $1.41 as of September 6, flat over the past week and up 35% over the past month. The rally built while holders expected the CLARITY Act to become law before the November midterms, and House leaders just cut two weeks from the September calendar, which makes a signing before November close to impossible.
Polymarket traders put the odds of the bill being signed in 2026 at 90% back in February. By September 6, those odds had dropped to 18%. So what did the XRP price get wrong?
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Why the XRP Price Rally Rests on a Vote That Cannot Pass a Law
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Senate Majority Leader John Thune has scheduled a vote on September 15 on whether the Senate will take up the CLARITY Act. That vote needs sixty senators, and winning it only starts the debate. The Senate Banking Committee cleared the bill 15 to 9 in May 2026, so the September vote is the next step, and there are at least two more after it.
The House passed its version of the bill, H.R. 3633, in July 2025 by 294 to 134. But the Senate has since written different text with provisions the House never voted on, so if the Senate passes its version, the House has to vote again before anything reaches the president.
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However, the House returns on September 14 for four voting days and leaves on September 17. Members had been scheduled to work through October 1, and House leaders pulled that deadline forward by two weeks. The House is not expected back until November 9, six days after the midterm elections, so two days after the Senate opens its debate, the House goes home for almost two months.
House leaders did not name the CLARITY Act when they announced the change, and no revised calendar has been announced since. The XRP price climbed 35% in a month on a Senate vote that is one step of three, and the House won’t be in Washington for the other two before November.
Where the XRP Price Stands on September 6
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The XRP price is down 24% from $1.84 on January 1, and down 50% from $2.79 in the twelve months to September 6. XRP’s climb from $1.03 to $1.41 over the 30 days to September 6 is a bounce inside that decline, and the coin is still nowhere near $2.79.
So even after the rally, XRP is below where it started the year. The XRP price has held near $1.41 for the seven days to September 6, which means buyers who bought the August climb are still waiting, and what they were waiting for was the bill.
Why XRP Has More Riding on the Bill Than Bitcoin or Ethereum
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The XRP price climbed 35% in the 30 days to September 6, against 26% for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) and 31% for Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH). All three rose on the same news, falling odds of a Fed rate hike and money going into ETFs, and the XRP price usually moves further than Bitcoin does in both directions, because it’s a smaller coin and the same money moves it more.
But XRP also has more riding on this bill. The SEC and CFTC classified Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP as commodities in the same March 2026 ruling, and the SEC had never sued over Bitcoin or Ethereum. For XRP, the ruling settled a question that had been open since the SEC sued Ripple in December 2020, and the CLARITY Act would turn it into law that an agency alone couldn’t reverse.
So a delay to the bill changes little for Bitcoin or Ethereum and takes away what XRP holders were waiting on. That’s why the 35% climb was bigger for XRP, and why a slip past the midterms could cost it more.
Can XRP Hold the Rally Without a September Signing?
The XRP price is unlikely to hold the rally as things stand, because holders bought XRP expecting a signed law and the House won’t be in session for anything past a Senate vote before November. Galaxy Digital puts the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 at 10%, below even the Polymarket figure, and neither number is close to what holders who drove that climb were betting on.
However, SEC Chair Paul Atkins said in early September that he expects the bill to pass the Senate and reach the president, and two things could still get it signed before the midterms. House leaders could add October voting days back to the calendar, or the Senate could pass a bill that matches H.R. 3633 closely enough that the House vote from July 2025 already covers it, and neither has been announced.
So if you hold XRP, the September 15 vote could still lift the price for a day, but a vote isn’t a law. The XRP price climbed on the first of three votes, and the House has taken the other two off the calendar until November.
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